単著 


小原雅博の著書紹介-Amazon.

 














見出し「日本と中国は、共演する演劇俳優」―日本外務省の小原アジア大洋州局副局長をインタビュー
日本の現職外交官である小原雅博氏は日中の戦略的互恵関係の構築に奔走している。最近、同氏は「日中関係新思考」を提案し、中国との現実的な協力を強調した。両国の利益が交差する過程の中で、日中双方の主張や立場は時に明らかに相反する。小原氏の見解の全てについて本紙が賛同する訳ではない。しかし、議論があるならば、日本が何を話し、何を考えているのか根気強く聞いてみることが、お互いを知る参考となる。2009年1月、小原氏は、現役の外交官としては珍しく、中国で書籍「日本はどこに向かうのか(日本走向何方)」を出版し、その中で、日本は開放的な国家利益(以下国益)に基づき中国との関係で戦略的互恵を追求すべきという「日中関係新思考」を提起した。2月2日午後、中国を訪問した小原氏は南方週末の単独インタビューを受けた。(以下、略)


























 



共著





論文

いま、「開かれた国益」について考える 小原雅博




Contribution to the Japan Times :「East Asia in the Trump era」

by Masahiro Kohara  Special To The Japan Times  

What might happen to U.S. foreign policy, in particular its alliance in East Asia, under the leadership of incoming President Donald Trump? Japan faces an increasingly complex security landscape in East Asia. The Trump presidency could make it more uncertain and more unpredictable.

First, North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities now pose a direct threat to Japan and its nuclear capability will probably be further upgraded to be able to hit the continental United States sometime during the Trump administration.

Sanctions don’t appear to be able to stop North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s military ambitions because he believes a nuclear deterrent is the most reliable and perhaps the only guarantee of his regime.

As the threat of his nukes becomes real for the U.S., the Trump administration will have to put it on the foreign policy front burner. Problems, however, could arise from both remarks made by Trump that criticize China for not curbing the North’s ambitions and his preference for bilateral deals including, as he suggested, deals with Kim over a hamburger.

The uncertainty of Trump’s “business-deal diplomacy” is casting a pall on Japanese and South Korean security interests. Despite South Korea’s present political paralysis, the trilateral consultation among the allies is critical to cope correctly and timely with North Korea’s growing threat. And Japan has an additional issue to resolve — the abduction of its citizens by North Korea.

Second, China’s rapid rise and its increasing assertiveness pose daunting challenges of diplomacy and security for the allies and partners of the U.S.

Tensions with China over the Senkaku Islands are raising widespread concern in Japan. China has continued to send government vessels and aircraft into the region. President Barack Obama declared, “Our treaty commitment to Japan’s security is absolute, and Article 5 covers all territories under Japan’s administration, including the Senkaku Islands.” His remarks are critically important to peace in Japan and stability in the region as the Japan-U.S. alliance could deter military action against Japan, including the Senkaku Islands. What will occur if Trump doesn’t follow Obama’s policy of mentioning them?

Third, the status quo in the South China Sea has also been gradually changed by China’s “salami-slicing” tactics of taking steps that fall below the threshold of a strong response by interested parties such as the U.S.

The few “freedom of navigation” operations conducted by the U.S. Navy didn’t stop unilateral Chinese actions such as large-scale land reclamation and militarization activities in the South China Sea.

At an international workshop I attended recently, a Chinese scholar asserted, “Japan is too active in the South China Sea.” I responded by saying: “I know President Xi Jinping is resentful of Japan’s involvement in the dispute. Nevertheless, Japan must be active because it depends greatly on foreign trade, in particular, the import of natural resources and energy — most of which are shipped across the South China Sea. The safety of sea lanes and freedom of navigation are of the utmost importance to the survival of Japan. Open, rule-based order in the region is critical to Japan’s national interests.”

Given such security circumstances, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been successful in convincing the majority of citizens to support and strengthen the Japan-U.S. alliance and the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal. Both are increasingly regarded in Japan to be an invaluable asset and the linchpin of peace and stability in a geopolitically changing region.

However, Trump asserted that the U.S. would withdraw from the TPP on his first day in the White House. Per the rules laid out in the TPP, a U.S. withdrawal renders the TPP invalid. Nonetheless, Japan ratified the treaty. That is a strong message to the U.S. and the world that Japan will resist protectionism and promote free trade.

During my visit to the U.S. after the presidential election, I heard a frank view from American scholars that gaiatsu (foreign pressure) would need to be used on the U.S.

That word inspired me with an alternative way to help the treaty survive: The TPP’s other 11 member states should work on modifying the rules governing the trade pact’s enforcement to put stronger pressure on the U.S. At present, however, these member states will likely lose motivation to do so if the world’s largest economy withdraws from the treaty. Their attention appears to be turning to the proposed Regional Cooperation Economic Partnership free trade agreement, which China is eager to realize.

Japan should strengthen dialogue with these members from the strategic viewpoint that they and the U.S. will be engaged on a potential pathway to achieve the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific, hoping that China will also join by deepening its economic reform to meet the high-standard criteria.

As for security, there are no other security frameworks besides the U.S.-Asia alliance network to maintain the open, rule-based international order in the region.

Abe’s trip to Pearl Harbor hosted by Obama sent a message of the importance of the alliance to Trump, as well as other messages, including the power of reconciliation through forgiveness, to the Asia-Pacific region. Hopefully Trump will understand the pivotal role of the Japan-U.S. alliance in the region and Japan’s fair contribution to it.

In this regard, it would be politically ideal and economically effective if both leaders would commit themselves to the Japan-U.S. alliance and publicly declare their commitment at a meeting held at the earliest possible date after Trump’s presidential inauguration on Jan. 20.

Of course, this doesn’t mean that Japan should put the relationship with China on the back burner. The management and improvement of bilateral ties with China will be another prioritized diplomatic agenda for Japan’s vital national interest in 2017, which marks the 45th anniversary of the normalization of Sino-Japanese diplomatic relations. Abe should strive to tackle this difficult but important challenge as a “proactive contributor to peace.”

Masahiro Kohara is a professor at the University Tokyo’s Graduate School of Law and Politics.


Contribution to the Japan Times:「East Asia, China and Japan in the age of Donald Trump」

by Masahiro Kohara Special To The Japan Times

U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration speech and executive orders pose grave concerns and uncertainties for American allies and partners. His “America First” foreign policy and his withdrawal of the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade pact could undermine American credibility sustained by its security and economic commitments in East Asia. Moreover, American soft power as a guardian of universal values and the open and rules-based international order could be lost. Smaller countries might vacillate between the U.S. and China. The consequences could be a disaster.

Since World War II’s end, the U.S. has promoted and expanded the international order based on freedom, democracy, respect for human rights and the rule of law. As a standard bearer of the liberal international order, the U.S. has safeguarded its allies and promoted both free trade and official development assistance for the sake of peace and prosperity in the world. This vision and strategy remained consistent throughout all the postwar U.S. administrations.

Trump, however, didn’t give the world any sign that he would pursue such a role. Instead, his only words echoing through the world are “America first,” which he described as “a new decree to be heard in every foreign capital.” The open and rules-based international order is at risk of collapse.

There are two indispensable factors to shape the international order.

One is power; the other is legitimacy. More powerful states can have a stronger say to form or change the international order than less powerful states do. However, if the order lacks legitimacy — i.e., the right and justification to exercise power — the order is not durable.

Trump’s America will lose this legitimacy while China has failed to show any legitimacy. China can’t be a legitimate leader of the international order if it continues to wield its own “core interests” and excessive nationalism while advocating the “concept of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security,” as it did this month in a white paper on its policies on Asia-Pacific security cooperation.

The legitimacy of the international order is deeply intertwined with the legitimacy of the domestic order of major powers like the U.S. and China. In this sense, the open and rules-based international order could be reinforced and sustained by America’s political credibility as a liberal democracy and China’s internal development toward a more open and rules-based society.

Now, however, we are witnessing two great powers that prefer might rather than legitimacy and the world is overwhelmed by a widespread feeling of doom and gloom.

In a time of transition marked by uncertainty, however, let’s turn our eyes to a little more optimistic development in East Asia. It is worthy to see positive aspects of globalization in developing East Asia instead of the negative aspects that contributed to the anger and frustration of working-class whites in the highly developed West who helped elect Trump and voted for Brexit.

In East Asia, economic interdependence among countries has deepened and the regional network of telecommunications and transportation has developed. Connectivity and interdependency are notable characteristics that could be the driving forces to change the mindsets and value systems of the people involved in this dynamism.

In China, social media plays an increasingly important role in making society more transparent and fair. More and more people are entering the middle class, enabling them to go overseas for travel and study. The number of Chinese tourists visiting Japan has been increasing dramatically in recent years. They see the world through their old eyes and then see China through their new eyes. Then change occurs.

Every big Chinese city is deeply enmeshed in the global economic order. China’s fastest developing areas — the coastal regions — are vulnerable to any war and economic disruption. China’s sustainable development will depend on regional peace and stability and its commitment to maintaining the open and rules-based international order.

The legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party depends on the nation’s economic growth. In recent years, however, China’s economy has been weathering a “new normal” in which its economic prospect are less bright than before.

Additionally, but no less seriously, an increasing disparity between the rich and the poor, serious environmental degradation, an aging society and insufficient social welfare, and rampant corruption are crossing the Chinese people’s “red line.” Who knows when another people’s revolt could occur in China?

President Xi Jinping may know that sustainable development is possible only if China chooses regional cooperation rather than coercion or unilateral action. However, Trump’s provocative language could trigger a more assertive policy incited by hawkish elements in the party and military, and nationalistic netizens. Japan should cultivate and use wise diplomacy to encourage the Chinese leadership to seek legitimacy through sustainable development rather than nationalism.

According to surveys conducted by the Genron NPO think tank and the China Daily newspaper, about 90 percent of respondents in Japan and China have an unfavorable or relatively unfavorable impression of the other. Nevertheless, more than 70 percent of respondents think that bilateral ties are important and the existing relationship is undesirable enough to cause worry or to necessitate improvement. Politicians must take their concerns and expectations seriously.

Both the Japanese and Chinese governments are conducting various diplomatic efforts to improve bilateral relations. Given the increasing uncertainties in the region as previously mentioned, what kind of approach should be prioritized to manage and improve Japan-China relations?

First, political and security tensions must be reduced as much as possible. If tension leads to armed conflict between Japan and China, there will be no winners. Instead, both countries will be losers. As such, an effective mechanism to avoid accidental conflict between the two countries must be established as soon as possible.

Second, Japan and China’s leaders should have face-to-face meetings on a more frequent basis. Diplomats in both countries must work hard to create such opportunities, including the bilateral meeting this year between Japan and China’s leaders to mark the 45th anniversary of the normalization of Sino-Japanese diplomatic relations.

Third, both governments could set up shared platforms to facilitate interactions involving politicians, bureaucrats, military officers, businesspersons, journalists, scholars, students and tourists to promote mutual understanding and trust. Given the asymmetric flow of people between China and Japan, more Japanese people should strive to visit China, where there are still vast frontiers and vast potential to do business and cooperation in a variety of fields.

Last but not least, Japan must be resilient to remain strong, liberal, democratic and successful itself in the interval before America returns to its role of guardian of the liberal international order.

Masahiro Kohara is a professor at the University of Tokyo’s Graduate School of Law and Politics. Previously he served as a career diplomat in the Foreign Ministry.














The Japan Times 2017.8.1. Kohara(北朝鮮).pdf へのリンク


对话日本学者:朝核问题让美日关系再入甜蜜期

2017-11-06 文晶 文晶Talk 文晶Talk

导语:115-6日,特朗普正式访问日本,这是其担任美国总统以来第一次正式出访日本。如何看待特朗普此次日本之行对美日关系的影响,特朗普会否推行哪些与奥巴马时期不同的对日政策?特朗普访问日韩之后还将访华,该如何看待当下的中日关系及其未来走向?

就此,新浪国际“文晶Talk”对话东京大学教授小原雅博、日本大学副教授日吉秀松。    小原雅博


文晶Talk:你如何看待特朗普此次日本之行?

日吉秀松:特朗普此次访日是他出任美国总统之后第一次访问亚洲的一部分。其目的有几个层面,一是加强与日本的同盟关系,进一步对朝鲜进行制裁,想解决朝鲜核问题;二是美日贸易问题,日本是对美“出超”第二大国,这也是高举“美国第一”旗帜的特朗普要解决的一个问题;此外,两国首脑也将谈及其他地区安全问题。

 

小原雅博:对于特朗普来说,美日同盟关系是他在亚洲地区重要的外交资源。他的首次访日将会向世界展示并进一步增进两国伙伴关系。哪怕他只是同安倍打打高尔夫球,或是去看望“被朝鲜绑架”的受害者的家属。

 

文晶Talk:安倍刚刚赢得议会大选,将会继续连任日本首相。此时特朗普开始首次出访日本,有没有特别的意义?

小原雅博:特朗普访日恰逢日本首相安倍晋三所属自民党刚刚赢得大选,安倍或将连任至2021年。此次胜利的重要原因之一正是安倍在外交政策上主张同美国加强联系,共同应对朝鲜核武器及导弹的严重危机。这一点对选民极具吸引力。安倍向美国展示了他有决心、有信心成为美国强大的合作伙伴,并在未来继续发展美日同盟关系。

 

日吉秀松:这次的访问日程仅仅与在越南举行的APEC首脑会议有关,而且日本决定大选的日期是九月底,因此特朗普在日本众议院选举以及安倍再次出任首相之后的访日并没有特别含义,而如果日本积极争取作为第一个被访国,我认为这种心态很不必要、且有自我矮化之嫌。

 

文晶Talk:特朗普执政以来美日关系与其前任是否有不同?美日两国关系发生了怎样的变化?

日吉秀松:自从特朗普当选后,日美关系出现了一个重大局面就是特朗普宣布退出TPP,加上特朗普对日本的贸易政策颇有微词,这是日本外交上一次重创,曾一度使日美关系处于低迷状态。众所周知,没有美国参与的TPP是没有太多实质意义的,对此日本只能忍气吞声,硬着头皮维持TPP框架,以期美国回心转意。但是,朝鲜核问题让日美关系出现了另一种意义的蜜月期。在美国国内,特朗普本身支持率十分低下,只有37%,这是美国历史上十分罕见的。选举后的美国社会还处于一种分裂状态,而且俄罗斯被指暗中干预总统选举问题以及特朗普在种族问题上的暧昧态度等,加上具有某种经济霸权主义倾向,这样的特朗普在国内政治上要想有建树是比较困难的。但目前日美关系尚处稳定状态,只要日美两国的国家利益没有出现重大分歧,就不会出现太大的曲折。不过在关键时刻基本还是日本向美国让步,这也是不争的事实。所以无论是过去、现在还是将来,日美关系应该都不会出现大问题。

 

小原雅博:无论美国总统是谁,在国内面临着什么政治困局,日本都会同美国保持密切的外交关系。另一方面,日本的生存与发展很依赖自由贸易。而美国退出TPP可能会对日本的国家利益带来负面影响,同时也会打乱现在对日本有利的世界经济格局。

 

文晶Talk:安倍一直积极推动修宪进程,而美国对日本此举持默许态度,你如何看待美国的这一立场?

小原雅博:自冷战之后,日本一直都在努力调整自身定位及国情以适应国际环境。其中包括修改宪法。对其必要性,各方各执一词。具体在安全、教育、地方自治等方面如何修宪,各方也有不同看法。最具争议性的是针对第九条例的修改。在保留现有条例内容的基础上,提出补充:设立日本自卫队以保证国家及其国民的安全,并在台风或地震这样的自然灾害中保障救援。

 

日吉秀松:我认为美国对于安倍修宪的默认是基于对一个主权国家的尊重,当然还有希望日本能够修改宪法为美国在太平洋以及印度洋地区分担一些,包括人力与物力。面对朝鲜的核武问题,美国政府也有心让日本在某种程度上武装自己。就我个人的看法是,修改宪法必须严格遵守法律手续,不能使用曾经提出的解释性修宪。面对现在复杂的国际局势,要修改宪法可以理解,但必须在认真对待过去惨痛的历史教训之上,以谦虚审慎之态度,向日本国民做出真诚解释并获得最大共识情形下稳妥修改宪法,但修改后的宪法不应与和平主义以及不再战这些宗旨背道而驰。

 

文晶Talk:当前中日关系依然低迷,你认为中日关系的核心症结在哪里?如何应对当前这种局势?

日吉秀松:我认为目前日中关系处于不平稳状态的主要原因是日中两国的力量对比发生变化,使得东亚地区出现日本与中国这两个大国并存的新局面,这是历史上没有过的。日本对中国的崛起估计不足,不太愿意接受这一现实。面对这一形势日本是采取消极的对华政策,那就是包围中国政策;另一方面中国在崛起过程使外部感到不安的心理作用也影响了日本对中国的看法,这样一来就使得两国之间的信赖关系降到最低点。再加上媒体的偏颇报道,让双方都失去冷静的观察能力,给日中关系雪上加霜。我认为要改善日中关系,不仅在推动双方人员交流,媒体方面更应该负起责任进行公正客观报道,而不是一味的指责或嘲讽。也只有诚恳、坦率的交流才能带来正面的影响,也只有这样才能发展两国的关系。双方只要秉承友好理解和宽容的态度进行真实的交流,就能化解误会与冲突,避免不必要的猜忌与嫉妒,用真心去交流与接触,就一定能够使日中两国关系消除隔阂,进而发展日中两国的关系。

 

小原雅博:两国政府都应落实并推动两国关系的发展。随着中国的崛起,地区力量关系已经发生了巨大变化。中国向世界展示其和平发展的意愿,日本也应该逐渐适应中国的崛起。我认为日本应该尽快更新其对中国的看法,因为中国已经发展起来了并将继续发展下去。明年,中日和平友好协议将迎来签订四十周年。两国关系也迎来了发展的新机遇。我希望两国领导人可以进行互访,这也是符合2008年两国《战略互惠关系联合声明》的。


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